GPU prices and the 2026 memory shortage: DRAM, GDDR7 and HBM figures, and what they mean for buying or renting

GPU prices rose through 2026 because memory makers moved production to HBM and server DRAM for AI data centers, and contract prices for ordinary DRAM rose every quarter. TrendForce reports conventional DRAM contract prices up about 93 to 98% in Q1 2026 and forecast 58 to 63% in Q2, 13 to 18% in Q3 and 10 to 15% in Q4; compounded, that is roughly 3.8 to 4.4 times the end-2025 level, by my calculation. The 128 GB DGX Spark went from $3,999 at launch to $4,699 on 23 February 2026 and $6,950 on 2 October 2026, and TechSpot's cheapest in-stock RTX 5090 in the US went from $3,500 in February to $9,400 in October 2026.

Why did memory prices rise in 2026?

Because AI data centers outbid everyone else for the same factories. TrendForce's 25 August 2026 release puts major cloud providers' capital spending up 98% in 2026, with DRAM and NAND taking 47% of it, and says HBM plus server RDIMM make up 51% of all DRAM bit supply this year. Every wafer that becomes HBM or a server module is a wafer that does not become PC, phone or graphics memory.

The suppliers said so directly. Micron's December 2025 announcement that it will stop selling consumer-brand memory says "The AI-driven growth in the data center has led to a surge in demand for memory and storage." SK hynix reported Q3 2026 revenue of 104.62 trillion won, up 327.9% year on year, and long-term agreements with 14 customers that cover more than half its capacity for 2027 and 2028 (CNBC, 28 October 2026). Bit output barely grew: TrendForce's Q2 revenue release says DRAM revenue rose 59.5% to about $154.73 billion while shipments "grew only modestly". The money came from price.

How much did DRAM contract prices rise in 2026?

Roughly fourfold over the year, if the forecasts hold. TrendForce publishes quarter-on-quarter ranges, and it revised Q1 upward twice: from 55 to 60% in January, to 90 to 95% in February, to 93 to 98% realized by June.

cumulative = (1 + Q1) x (1 + Q2) x (1 + Q3) x (1 + Q4)
low:  1.93 x 1.58 x 1.13 x 1.10 = 3.79
high: 1.98 x 1.63 x 1.18 x 1.15 = 4.38

Contract prices are what PC, phone and card makers pay suppliers, not retail prices. Three of the four quarters are forecasts, so treat the result as an order of magnitude. PC DRAM rose faster than the average in Q1: TrendForce's February release forecast more than 100% for that segment.

What happened to GDDR7 and graphics card prices?

Graphics memory followed the market up, and 3 GB GDDR7 chips became the most expensive part of a planned refresh. TrendForce's March release said GDDR6 and GDDR7 prices would rise further in Q2 2026 and that "rising memory costs are weighing on demand for notebooks and gaming devices". In July it noted that NVIDIA's RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell "has not generated the anticipated wave of GDDR7 demand", yet tight supply still let GDDR6 and GDDR7 prices rise with the rest of DRAM. VideoCardz's source put 3 GB GDDR7 at three times the price of 2 GB in July, which is why the RTX 50 Super refresh is on hold; the RTX 50 Super article has that timeline.

Memory explains only part of the card prices. A quick check with the July chip price:

RTX 5090: 16 GDDR7 chips x 2 GB
at about $20 per chip   = about $320 of memory
even at 3x that price   = about $960
RTX 5090 cheapest US price, Oct 2026 (TechSpot) $9,400 vs $1,999 MSRP: +$7,401

TechSpot reaches the same conclusion with its own data: the RTX 5070 Ti and RTX 5060 Ti 16 GB carry the same 16 GB of GDDR7, yet the 5070 Ti rose $150 more, and the RTX 5080's $770 average rise "is not due to memory price increases". The rest is GPU supply. NVIDIA SVP Jeff Fisher said in October that RTX 5090 production capacity is "somewhat constrained" while denying the card was discontinued (VideoCardz), and VideoCardz reports AI companies buying 5090s in bulk. Current listings by country, and a buy-or-rent calculation for the card, are in the RTX 5090 price tracker.

What does HBM have to do with desktop GPU prices?

HBM competes for the same DRAM wafers, and it is not getting cheaper. TrendForce says HBM contract prices could still rise 70 to 140% in 2027 even with price ceilings in some long-term agreements, and server DRAM contract prices are expected to rise about 270% over 2026 after 64% in the second half of 2025. For anyone renting H100, H200 or B200 capacity, that pressure lands on rental rates rather than shelf prices; the datacenter GPU rental price article tracks those.

How did the DGX Spark price change in 2026?

It rose 74% in a year, in two steps, both tied to memory. The GB10 chip shares 128 GB of LPDDR5X between CPU and GPU, so memory is probably a large share of its cost; that is my inference, since NVIDIA publishes no breakdown.

The DGX Spark price page recorded €7,331.59 as the cheapest German offer on 24 October 2026, so the street price rose about 9% in two weeks. The Register also reports that AMD's Gorgon Halo systems with 32 to 192 GB sell for less than the 128 GB Spark. Other GB10 machines and their European prices are on the where-to-buy page.

Does the memory shortage change whether to buy or rent?

Yes. Buying got more expensive, so rental spending takes longer to add up to the purchase price. GPUwerk's dedicated Spark is $0.79 per hour on 7 November 2026; at that rate, the break-even grew with every NVIDIA increase:

Price divided by $0.79; 730 hours per month; 2,080 hours per year at 40 hours a week. Electricity, VAT and resale value excluded, as on the rent-or-buy page, which has a calculator for your own hours.

My rule for late 2026: buy hardware only if it will run near 24/7 for more than a year, or if you must hold data on your own premises. Anything less, rent it, because the purchase price now includes a memory premium that may or may not be there in 2028, and a per-minute rental can simply be stopped on the day buying makes more sense. If you already own a Spark that sits idle, the shortage cuts the other way: renting it out recovers part of what you paid.

Will GPU and memory prices fall in 2027?

Not on any published evidence. The rate of increase is slowing (10 to 15% forecast for Q4 against 93 to 98% in Q1), but prices are still rising, and slower growth on a fourfold base is not a discount. TrendForce's Q4 release describes PC makers buying aggressively because they expect tight supply in 2027. HBM is forecast up again in 2027. SK hynix told investors it expects memory demand to outpace supply through 2030. TechSpot's November update says retailers expect GPU prices to keep rising and that US prices may preview other markets.

The one cheaper path is capacity that someone else already bought: a rented RTX 5090 at $0.89 per hour or a Spark at $0.79 (pricing), or a 64 GB GB10 machine if your models fit. Waiting for 2025 prices to return is not a plan I would bet a project on.

FAQ

Sources

Every figure above is attributed to its source in the sentence or table where it appears. Pages were read on 7 November 2026 unless a date says otherwise.

• Memory Makers Prioritize Server Applications, Driving Across-the-Board Price Increases in 1Q26, Says TrendForce, TrendForce, 2026-01-05
• Memory Price Outlook for 1Q26 Sharply Upgraded; QoQ Increases of All Product Categories to Hit Record Highs, Says TrendForce, TrendForce, 2026-02-02
• AI Server Demand to Drive Memory Contract Price Increases in 2Q26 as CSPs Secure Supply via Long-Term Agreements, TrendForce, 2026-03-31
• Rapid Contract Price Surge Drives 1Q26 DRAM Industry Up 81% QoQ, Says TrendForce, TrendForce, 2026-06-01
• AI Server Demand Continues to Support Memory Prices in 3Q26, but Gains Moderate, Says TrendForce, TrendForce, 2026-07-03
• Memory Prices Soar; DRAM and NAND Flash to Account for 68% of Major CSP CapEx in 2027, Says TrendForce, TrendForce, 2026-08-25
• DRAM Industry Revenue Rises 59.5% QoQ in 2Q26 as Supply Expansion Continues to Lag Demand Growth, Says TrendForce, TrendForce, 2026-09-07
• AI Server Demand Sustains Memory Contract Price Increases in 4Q26, While Consumer-Side Pressure Persists, Says TrendForce, TrendForce, 2026-09-30
• SK Hynix shares soar as third-quarter profit beats estimates, CNBC, 2026-10-28
• Micron announces exit from its consumer memory business, Micron, 2025-12-03
• 2/23/2026 Price Change Announcement, NVIDIA Developer Forums, 2026-02-25
• Nvidia debuts $4,999 DGX Spark with half the RAM and storage, amid memory crunch, The Register, 2026-10-02
• DGX Spark 64GB announcement, NVIDIA Blog, 2026-10-02
• GPU Prices Are Spiraling Out of Control: Q4 2026 Update, TechSpot, 2026-11-02
• NVIDIA RTX 50 SUPER launch on hold over 3GB GDDR7 pricing, VideoCardz, 2026-07-17
• NVIDIA says RTX 5090 is not discontinued, but good luck finding one for $1,999, VideoCardz, 2026-10-17
• NVIDIA DGX Spark Founders Edition price comparison, Geizhals